06 · Writing

The thesis, the articles, and the weekly notes.

Long-form work is published here; shorter notes appear on LinkedIn and are collected below. The seven-part series written before 3 June 2026 is where the language of the practice was first set out.

Writing · LinkedIn series and co-authored insight
Co-authored insight
The leading indicator: what the insurance market reveals about climate transition-plan credibility
Co-authored with Ashurst Perkins Coie, September 2026. When insurers reprice, narrow cover or withdraw capacity, they are making priced statements about future insurability that arrive before a company's own reporting catches up. A credible transition plan reads that signal.
01
3 June is closer than most think
Insurers are scaling through multi-channel distribution on operating models not built for it. Growth increases; control does not. The gap is not understanding risk but translating it into decisions that hold.
02
3 June is a decision test
What the PRA is really asking is not whether you understand climate risk but whether you can evidence how it changes underwriting, capital and board decisions. A simple test for CROs: trace one material scenario through.
03
The Materiality Trap
Most firms will meet the deadline. Far fewer will meet the standard. Materiality gets defined but does not consistently reach the decisions it is supposed to inform.
04
The quiet year that wasn't
Severe convective storms have overtaken tropical cyclones as the costliest peril this century. Capital models are built for peak peril; losses are coming from accumulation. The Accumulation Gap.